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India: Is the world’s fastest-growing big economy losing steam?

Then there is what economist Arvind Subramanian calls a “new twist in the tale”.

Even as calls grow to lower interest rates and boost liquidity, the central bank is propping up a falling rupee by selling dollars, which tightens liquidity. Since October, the RBI has spent $50bn, external from its forex reserves to shield the rupee.

Buyers must pay in rupees to purchase dollars, which reduces liquidity in the market. Maintaining a strong rupee through interventions reduces competitiveness by making Indian goods more expensive in global markets, leading to lower demand for exports.

“Why is the central bank shoring up the rupee? The policy is bad for the economy and exports. Possibly they are doing it because of optics. They don’t want to show India’s currency is weak,” Mr Subramanian, a former economic adviser to the government, told the BBC.

Critics warn that the “hyping up the narrative” of India as the fastest-growing economy is hindering essential reforms to boost investment, exports and job creation. “We are still a poor country. Our per capita GDP is less than $3,000, while the US is at $86,000. If you say we are growing faster than them, it makes no sense at all,” says Ms. Sengupta.

In other words, India requires a significantly higher and sustained growth rate to generate more jobs and raise incomes.

Boosting growth and consumption will not be easy in the short term. Lacking private investment, Himanshu suggests raising wages through government-run employment schemes to increase incomes and spur consumption. Others like Ms Sengupta advocate for reducing tariffs and attracting export investments moving away from China to countries like Vietnam.

The government remains upbeat over the India story, external: banks are strong, forex reserves are robust, finances stable and extreme poverty has declined. Chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says the latest GDP figure should not be over-interpreted. “We should not throw the baby out with the bathwater, as the underlying growth story remains intact,” he said at a recent meeting, external.

Clearly the pace of growth could do with some picking up. That is why scepticism lingers. “There’s no nation as ambitious for so long without taking [adequate] steps to fulfill that ambition,” says Ms Sengupta. “Meanwhile, the headlines talk of India’s age and decade – I’m waiting for that to materialise.”

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